ONE NATION MIGRATION POLICY
ONE NATION PROMISED FEWER PEOPLE NOW IT PROMISES MORE
ORIGINAL POLICY
FEWER
people every year through migration
REVISED POLICY
MORE
people every year through migration
Population change through overseas migration. Births and deaths are separate.
THE POLICY BACKFLIP
PERSON REVERSAL
EVERY YEAR
WHY THE FIRST POLICY MATTERED
THE ORIGINAL POLICY WAS GOOD
One Nation originally promised to cap migrant arrivals at 130,000. Using Pauline Hanson's own example of 230,000 departures, migration would reduce Australia's population by 100,000 people every year.
That meant fewer people competing for housing, rentals, hospital beds, doctors, schools and infrastructure. It would reduce demand pressure and make housing and living costs lower than they would otherwise be.
THE NUMBERS ARE SIMPLE
SAME DEPARTURES
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT RESULT
ORIGINAL POLICY
REVISED POLICY
The comparison uses Pauline Hanson's March example of approximately 230,000 annual departures.
HOW THE POLICY CHANGED
THE TIMELINE
-
FEBRUARY 2025
130,000 VISA CAP
One Nation publishes a policy promising to cap visas at no more than 130,000 a year.
READ THE ORIGINAL POLICY -
MARCH 2026
NET NEGATIVE CONFIRMED
Pauline Hanson says 130,000 is a cap on arrivals, with departures deducted afterwards. Using her example, the result is 100,000 fewer.
VIEW A SCREENSHOT OF HANSON'S DELETED STATEMENT -
23 AUGUST 2026
FARLEY DESCRIBES A DIFFERENT POLICY
David Farley says the target is 130,000 net migration plus at least 100,000 workers under additional visa programs.
READ THE ABC REPORT -
23–24 AUGUST 2026
130,000 NOW MEANS NET
One Nation confirms 130,000 people would be added after departures. It also says some short-term seasonal workers sit outside that figure.
READ THE LATEST CLARIFICATION
WHAT SITS OUTSIDE THE HEADLINE
130,000 IS NOT THE WHOLE NUMBER
Some people admitted to work in Australia are excluded from net migration statistics because they do not remain long enough to meet the ABS residency test.
Farley was right about the central point: the revised policy can admit a large additional flow of workers beyond the headline figure. Working-holiday and short-term PALM programs alone produce a best working estimate of about 140,000 labour entrants a year outside the 130,000.
BEST WORKING ESTIMATE
EXCLUDED LABOUR ENTRANTS PER YEAR
This is rounded from an estimated 139,562. Smaller short-stay work programs have not been added, so the full figure may be higher.
WORKING-HOLIDAY ENTRANTS OUTSIDE THE 130,000
≈118,162196,462 first working-holiday visas, minus 78,300 working-holiday arrivals counted in net migration.
SHORT-TERM PALM ANNUAL EQUIVALENT
≈21,40016,050 short-term workers present, annualised across the program's maximum nine-month stay.
Important: This is an estimate, not an official One Nation limit. Visa grants and physical arrivals do not align perfectly. The calculation excludes subclass 400 short-stay specialists and other smaller temporary-work streams.
THE BOTTOM LINE
THE POLICY MOVED FROM 100,000 FEWER TO 130,000 MORE — PLUS ABOUT 140,000 SHORT-TERM LABOUR ENTRANTS OUTSIDE THE HEADLINE.
The first policy reduced Australia's population through migration. The revised policy grows it and leaves major short-term labour flows outside the number most voters will see.